Lyon 2-3 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 23 Feb 2025

Lyon
2-3 HT 0-0
PSG
📅23/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.65
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
54%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.61
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.78
2-3 Goals
43%
2.04
4-5 Goals
22%
2.51
6+ Goals
12%
5.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.37
1/2 EV+ ✗
15%
18.3
1/X
4%
16.75
X/1
10%
11.9
X/2
10%
4.29
X/X
10%
7.37
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
29%
1.81
2/X
7%
15.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 18.3 — our 15% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ BTTS Yes ★★ Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
18%
+6.9pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.9pp
54%
Away Win
62%
-7.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.8pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 66%
+14% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +16%
1.79/3.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.08/1.19
+30% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +5%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
282 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 450 · 86%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
14.9 Crosses 14.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
1W-0D-5L
AWAY PSG
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.36 xG 2.64
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
318 Passes 699
83% Pass Accuracy 92%
28 Box Touches 38
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 2-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
25.05.2024 Lyon Lyon 1-2 HT 0-2 PSG PSG FRK
21.04.2024 PSG PSG 4-1 HT 4-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
03.09.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-4 HT 0-4 PSG PSG FR1
02.04.2023 PSG PSG 0-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
18.09.2022 Lyon Lyon 0-1 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
2-3
AWAY PSG
1.78 xG 2.36
35% Ball Possession 65%
14 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
278 Passes 607
83% Pass Accuracy 92%
24 Box Touches 35
15 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lyon vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG nicked a narrow win over Lyon 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lyon had 35% of the ball to PSG's 65%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.78 to 2.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lyon and 2.33 for PSG.

What was the final score of Lyon vs PSG?

Lyon 2-3 PSG in the France - Ligue 1 on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lyon 25%, draw 21%, PSG 54%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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