Barrow 1-0 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.75
6+ Goals
8%
15.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 32% vs market 26.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.33
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.65
X/1
22%
3.99
X/2
11%
8.79
X/X
14%
4.77
2/1
9%
24.85
2/2
10%
6.99
2/X
6%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.8pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barrow EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +14%
1.54/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.31
-6% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
296 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 68%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
21.7 Crosses 15.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barrow
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Newport County
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.14 xG 0.87
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
244 Passes 246
68% Pass Accuracy 66%
16 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2023 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 1-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
11.02.2023 Barrow Barrow 0-1 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
17.09.2022 Newport County Newport County 0-2 HT 0-1 Barrow Barrow İN2
29.01.2022 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 2-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
24.09.2021 Barrow Barrow 2-1 HT 0-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
02.04.2021 Barrow Barrow 2-1 HT 0-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barrow
1-0
AWAY Newport County
1.69 xG 0.52
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
176 Passes 174
58% Pass Accuracy 55%
28 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Barrow vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barrow edged past Newport County 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Barrow as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Barrow had 49% of the ball to Newport County's 51%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.69 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barrow had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Barrow and 1.00 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Barrow vs Newport County?

Barrow 1-0 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barrow vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barrow win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Barrow 46%, draw 26%, Newport County 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barrow), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barrow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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