Tranmere Rovers 1-3 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 23 Mar 2024

Tranmere Rovers
1-3 HT 1-2
Crawley Town
📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Tranmere Rovers vs Crawley Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
8.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.38 — our 26% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.76
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
16%
4.88
X/2
9%
7.13
X/X
14%
5.31
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
13%
4.69
2/X
8%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.0pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.2pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.2pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tranmere Rovers v Crawley Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tranmere Rovers EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -4%
1.16/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.47
+5% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
293 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 70%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
22.4 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Tranmere Rovers vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tranmere Rovers
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.46 xG 1.26
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
243 Passes 296
66% Pass Accuracy 67%
16 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 3-2 HT 0-1 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
15.04.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-1 HT 2-1 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
28.02.2023 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 1-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
22.01.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
06.11.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers FAK
02.10.2021 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 2-1 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2

Tranmere Rovers 1-3 Crawley Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tranmere Rovers
1-3
AWAY Crawley Town
1.16 xG 1.21
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
392 Passes 333
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tranmere Rovers vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town got the better of Tranmere Rovers 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Tranmere Rovers at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tranmere Rovers had 54% of the ball to Crawley Town's 46%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.16 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tranmere Rovers had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tranmere Rovers and 1.00 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Tranmere Rovers vs Crawley Town?

Tranmere Rovers 1-3 Crawley Town in the England - 2nd Division on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tranmere Rovers vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tranmere Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Tranmere Rovers 43%, draw 30%, Crawley Town 28%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tranmere Rovers), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tranmere Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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