Afragolese 2-1 Sancataldese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
23%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under
58%
Over
42%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
No Pick
61%
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2-3
44%
4-5
17%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.1pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.5pp
23%
Away Win
29%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Afragolese The Market 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sancataldese The Market 32%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.42/1.22
+87% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / -4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Afragolese
2-1
AWAY Sancataldese
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Afragolese vs Sancataldese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Afragolese squeezed past Sancataldese 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Afragolese as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Afragolese had 49% of the ball to Sancataldese's 51%, shots finished 14-7.

What was the final score of Afragolese vs Sancataldese?

Afragolese 2-1 Sancataldese in the Italy - Serie D on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Afragolese vs Sancataldese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Afragolese win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Afragolese 46%, draw 31%, Sancataldese 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Afragolese) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Afragolese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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