Atletico Castegnato 1-2 Portosummaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.87
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
41%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
Over
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
43%
4-5
19%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
30%
Home Win
22%
+7.1pp
29%
Draw
23%
+6.1pp
41%
Away Win
54%
-13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Castegnato The Market 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Portosummaga The Market 58%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
255 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Atletico Castegnato vs Portosummaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portosummaga squeezed past Atletico Castegnato 2-1 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Portosummaga as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Atletico Castegnato vs Portosummaga?

Atletico Castegnato 1-2 Portosummaga in the Italy - Serie D on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Castegnato vs Portosummaga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portosummaga win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atletico Castegnato 30%, draw 29%, Portosummaga 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portosummaga) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portosummaga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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