23/03/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-0
Nocerina vs San Marzano Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
59%
Over
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
No Pick
66%
Total Goals
0-1
39%
2-3
34%
4-5
20%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 66% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
52%
Home Win
56%
24%
Draw
21%
25%
Away Win
22%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nocerina v San Marzano — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Nocerina
The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY
San Marzano
The Market 26%
+2% /
+2%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+6% /
+6%
0.90/0.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.68/0.97
-18%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-35%
/
+12%
51%
Ball Possession
49%
13
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
5
324 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
330 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Nocerina vs San Marzano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Nocerina ran out comfortable winners over San Marzano 3-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nocerina as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (66%) landed while under 2.5 goals (59%) missed.
What was the final score of Nocerina vs San Marzano?
Nocerina 3-0 San Marzano in the Italy - Serie D on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nocerina vs San Marzano?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nocerina win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Nocerina 52%, draw 24%, San Marzano 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nocerina), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Nocerina)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
23 Mar 2024