23/03/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
0-1
Real Calepina vs Club Milano Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
Over
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
No Pick
56%
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
44%
4-5
15%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
11%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
36%
Home Win
34%
29%
Draw
27%
36%
Away Win
39%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Real Calepina v Club Milano — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Real Calepina
The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY
Club Milano
The Market 43%
-51% /
-51%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-45%
/
-37%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
53%
Ball Possession
47%
12
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
3
290 · 76%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
404 · 82%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Real Calepina vs Club Milano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Real Calepina edged past Club Milano 2-1.
We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Real Calepina made the difference. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Real Calepina vs Club Milano?
Real Calepina 2-1 Club Milano in the Italy - Serie D on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Real Calepina vs Club Milano?
Before kick-off our model rated a Real Calepina win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Real Calepina 36%, draw 29%, Club Milano 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.
◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/29/36)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
İTD
More Italy - Serie D
23 Mar 2024