23/03/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-0
USD Palmese vs FC Matera Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
55%
Over
45%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
No Pick
62%
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2-3
31%
4-5
25%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
26%
2/X
3%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 62% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
31%
Home Win
18%
28%
Draw
23%
41%
Away Win
58%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
USD Palmese v FC Matera — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
USD Palmese
The Market 21%
Head to Head
AWAY
FC Matera
The Market 62%
+67% /
+67%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+28% /
+28%
3.00/1.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
3.00/1.00
+148%
/
+14%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+150%
/
+25%
49%
Ball Possession
51%
11
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Target
5
5
Corners
5
251 · 73%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
332 · 81%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
USD Palmese vs FC Matera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
USD Palmese ran out comfortable winners over FC Matera 3-0.
Our pre-match lean was FC Matera at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (62%) landed while under 2.5 goals (55%) missed.
What was the final score of USD Palmese vs FC Matera?
USD Palmese 3-0 FC Matera in the Italy - Serie D on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for USD Palmese vs FC Matera?
Before kick-off our model rated an FC Matera win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split USD Palmese 31%, draw 28%, FC Matera 41%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (FC Matera), Under 2.5 went the other way.
✗ Match Result (FC Matera)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
23 Mar 2024