Alcorcon 2-1 Villarreal II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
18%
3.96
6+ Goals
9%
19.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.64 — our 34% vs market 30.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.3pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.3pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.8pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alcorcon EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal II EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.63/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.22
+29% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
264 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alcorcon
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Villarreal II
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.74 xG 1.76
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
198 Passes 401
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 Villarreal II Villarreal II 4-0 HT 2-0 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS3
15.04.2024 Alcorcon Alcorcon 1-0 HT 0-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
30.09.2023 Villarreal II Villarreal II 2-2 HT 1-2 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS2
18.02.2012 Villarreal II Villarreal II 0-3 HT 0-2 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS2
10.09.2011 Alcorcon Alcorcon 1-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
12.05.2011 Villarreal II Villarreal II 1-4 HT 1-4 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alcorcon
2-1
AWAY Villarreal II
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alcorcon vs Villarreal II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alcorcon squeezed past Villarreal II 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Alcorcon found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alcorcon had 55% of the ball to Villarreal II's 45%, shots finished 15-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alcorcon had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Alcorcon and 1.33 for Villarreal II.

What was the final score of Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?

Alcorcon 2-1 Villarreal II in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alcorcon win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Alcorcon 40%, draw 27%, Villarreal II 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alcorcon) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alcorcon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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