SS Monopoli 1-0 Casertana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
34%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.48
Over 2.5
43%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
5.37
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.9pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.1pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+8.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
64%
-6.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
36%
+6.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SS Monopoli EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Casertana EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.22/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.96
-6% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
313 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SS Monopoli
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Casertana
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2024 Casertana Casertana 0-0 HT 0-0 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli İTC
06.01.2024 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli 1-2 HT 0-0 Casertana Casertana İTC
27.09.2023 Casertana Casertana 1-1 HT 1-0 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli İTC
15.04.2021 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli 0-1 HT 0-1 Casertana Casertana İTC
07.12.2020 Casertana Casertana 2-1 HT 2-1 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli İTC
08.03.2020 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli 0-1 HT 0-0 Casertana Casertana İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SS Monopoli
1-0
AWAY Casertana
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH SS Monopoli vs Casertana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SS Monopoli squeezed past Casertana 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; SS Monopoli found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, SS Monopoli had 53% of the ball to Casertana's 47%, shots finished 9-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Casertana led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for SS Monopoli and 1.17 for Casertana.

What was the final score of SS Monopoli vs Casertana?

SS Monopoli 1-0 Casertana in the Italy - Serie C on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SS Monopoli vs Casertana?

Before kick-off our model rated a SS Monopoli win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split SS Monopoli 39%, draw 27%, Casertana 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SS Monopoli), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (SS Monopoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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