Charlotte 4-1 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
2.85
6+ Goals
10%
8.57
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 27% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.02
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.1
X/1 EV+ ✗
24%
4.28
X/2
6%
10.45
X/X
10%
5.82
2/1
6%
21.0
2/2
13%
7.96
2/X
6%
15.75
Value flag · X/1 at 4.28 — our 24% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-3.2pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.8pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.5pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlotte EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 22%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.89/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.80
+18% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
399 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 80%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
18.0 Crosses 15.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlotte
4-1
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
3.10 xG 2.70
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 26
8 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 5
311 Passes 304
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Charlotte vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charlotte ran out comfortable winners over San Jose Earthquakes 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Charlotte as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Charlotte had 51% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 49%, shots finished 14-26, expected goals 3.10 to 2.70.

What was the final score of Charlotte vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Charlotte 4-1 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlotte vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Charlotte win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Charlotte 55%, draw 22%, San Jose Earthquakes 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Charlotte) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Charlotte) ✗ BTTS No
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