New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC — Team-Based Signals
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Toronto FC
ABD
0-0
HT 0-0
New York Red Bulls
ABD
2-0
HT 1-0
Toronto FC
ABD
New York Red Bulls 2-1 Toronto FC — Actual Match Statistics
New York Red Bulls nicked a narrow win over Toronto FC 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had New York Red Bulls as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, New York Red Bulls had 53% of the ball to Toronto FC's 47%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 1.80 to 0.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold New York Red Bulls's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for New York Red Bulls and 0.17 for Toronto FC.
What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?
New York Red Bulls 2-1 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?
Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 46%, draw 30%, Toronto FC 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York Red Bulls) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.