Philadelphia Union 1-0 St. Louis City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.02
2-3 Goals
36%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
2.85
6+ Goals
13%
8.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.1
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
4%
12.15
X/1 EV+ ✗
19%
5.41
X/2
12%
6.65
X/X
15%
5.18
2/1
7%
23.4
2/2
11%
4.27
2/X
7%
12.5
Value flag · X/1 at 5.41 — our 19% vs market 14.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+3.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-2.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.4pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
1.80/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.42
-1% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +41%
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
21.1 Crosses 16.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 3.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
1-0
AWAY St. Louis City
1.34 xG 0.16
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
220 Passes 277
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 10
23 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs St. Louis City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union edged past St. Louis City 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Philadelphia Union as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 46% of the ball to St. Louis City's 54%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.34 to 0.16.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs St. Louis City?

Philadelphia Union 1-0 St. Louis City in the USA - Major League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs St. Louis City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 45%, draw 26%, St. Louis City 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Philadelphia Union) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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