Orlando City 4-1 DC United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.43
Over 2.5
55%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.97
2-3 Goals
38%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.58
6+ Goals
12%
6.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.36
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
21%
4.83
X/2
9%
8.54
X/X
11%
6.02
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.95
2/2
12%
5.66
2/X
9%
13.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.95 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-3.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-10.2pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY DC United EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +16%
1.55/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.52
-13% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
358 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 79%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
21.5 Crosses 17.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY DC United
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.66 xG 1.15
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
394 Passes 325
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.07.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 5-0 HT 3-0 DC United DC United ABD
14.04.2024 DC United DC United 2-3 HT 1-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
23.04.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 1-3 HT 1-1 DC United DC United ABD
12.03.2023 DC United DC United 1-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
01.08.2022 DC United DC United 2-1 HT 0-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
05.07.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 3-5 HT 0-2 DC United DC United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
4-1
AWAY DC United
3.04 xG 1.30
44% Ball Possession 56%
20 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 10
357 Passes 447
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs DC United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City ran out comfortable winners over DC United 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Orlando City as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Orlando City had 44% of the ball to DC United's 56%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 3.04 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, DC United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Orlando City and 2.17 for DC United.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs DC United?

Orlando City 4-1 DC United in the USA - Major League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs DC United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 48%, draw 25%, DC United 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orlando City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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