Caen 2-1 Annecy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 23 Apr 2024

Caen
2-1 HT 1-0
Annecy
📅23/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Caen vs Annecy Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
40%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.7
No
57%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.32
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.56
6+ Goals
9%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 33% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.52
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
14%
5.38
X/2 EV+ ✗
19%
5.87
X/X
10%
4.48
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
15%
3.99
2/X
11%
12.75
Value flag · X/2 at 5.87 — our 19% vs market 12.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
38%
-4.8pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
40%
Away Win
34%
+6.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+8.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-8.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
55%
-11.8pp
57%
BTTS No
45%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caen v Annecy — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caen EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Annecy EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.36/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.10
+16% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / +77%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
304 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 75%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
20.2 Crosses 16.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Caen vs Annecy Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caen
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Annecy
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.78 xG 1.08
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
301 Passes 256
70% Pass Accuracy 67%
20 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
06.12.2023 Annecy Annecy 1-2 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
31.01.2023 Annecy Annecy 2-0 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
12.11.2022 Caen Caen 0-0 HT 0-0 Annecy Annecy FR2

Caen 2-1 Annecy — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caen
2-1
AWAY Annecy
1.92 xG 0.23
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 0
455 Passes 328
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 4
29 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Caen vs Annecy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caen nicked a narrow win over Annecy 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (33% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Caen found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Caen had 57% of the ball to Annecy's 43%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 1.92 to 0.23 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Caen's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Caen and 1.00 for Annecy.

What was the final score of Caen vs Annecy?

Caen 2-1 Annecy in the France - Ligue 2 on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caen vs Annecy?

Before kick-off our model rated an Annecy win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Caen 33%, draw 26%, Annecy 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Annecy) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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