Valenciennes 1-0 Ajaccio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 23 Apr 2024

📅23/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.04
Draw
27%
2.77
Away
51%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.33
Over 2.5
36%
3.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.67
No
58%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
1.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.91
4-5 Goals
15%
7.91
6+ Goals
5%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
22%
+0.5pp
27%
Draw
33%
-6.1pp
51%
Away Win
46%
+5.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
72%
-8.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
28%
+8.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
33%
+8.9pp
58%
BTTS No
67%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valenciennes EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajaccio EU Bookmakers 49%
+3% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
0.99/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/0.74
+11% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +76%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 81%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
14.3 Crosses 15.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valenciennes
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Ajaccio
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.58 xG 1.30
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
296 Passes 328
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.12.2023 Ajaccio Ajaccio 2-1 HT 2-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
22.04.2022 Valenciennes Valenciennes 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
03.12.2021 Ajaccio Ajaccio 0-0 HT 0-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
03.04.2021 Ajaccio Ajaccio 3-0 HT 1-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
01.12.2020 Valenciennes Valenciennes 1-1 HT 0-1 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
28.02.2020 Valenciennes Valenciennes 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valenciennes
1-0
AWAY Ajaccio
0.82 xG 1.62
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
308 Passes 314
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Valenciennes vs Ajaccio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valenciennes edged past Ajaccio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ajaccio at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Valenciennes had 51% of the ball to Ajaccio's 49%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 0.82 to 1.62 — the balance of chances actually favoured Ajaccio.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajaccio led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Valenciennes and 1.00 for Ajaccio.

What was the final score of Valenciennes vs Ajaccio?

Valenciennes 1-0 Ajaccio in the France - Ligue 2 on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valenciennes vs Ajaccio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajaccio win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Valenciennes 22%, draw 27%, Ajaccio 51%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ajaccio) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajaccio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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