Troyes 2-2 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 23 Apr 2024

Troyes
2-2 HT 0-1
Pau
📅23/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Troyes vs Pau Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
39%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.57
6+ Goals
11%
14.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.57 — our 25% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.11
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
33.0
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
12%
4.91
X/2
12%
6.43
X/X
9%
4.55
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
20%
4.55
2/X
8%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.0 — our 6% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
39%
Away Win
31%
+8.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.8pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Troyes v Pau — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Troyes EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 34%
+10% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +10%
1.35/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.32
+21% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
17.1 Crosses 17.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Troyes vs Pau Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Troyes
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Pau
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.76 xG 1.06
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
387 Passes 276
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.12.2023 Pau Pau 1-1 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
23.01.2021 Pau Pau 0-1 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
12.09.2020 Troyes Troyes 2-0 HT 1-0 Pau Pau FR2

Troyes 2-2 Pau — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Troyes
2-2
AWAY Pau
1.46 xG 1.04
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
470 Passes 303
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Troyes vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Troyes and Pau shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 25% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Troyes had 59% of the ball to Pau's 41%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.46 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Troyes had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Troyes and 0.33 for Pau.

What was the final score of Troyes vs Pau?

Troyes 2-2 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Troyes vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Troyes 36%, draw 25%, Pau 39%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pau) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pau) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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