Sparta Prag 1-0 Viktoria Plzen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Cup, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.23
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.39
6+ Goals
12%
13.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.39 — our 24% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
+0.3pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.5pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Viktoria Plzen EU Bookmakers 38%
+42% / +42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
2.17/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.33
+27% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
345 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Prag
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Viktoria Plzen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.38 xG 1.64
50% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
335 Passes 320
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2025 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 2-4 HT 1-2 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen ÇEK
27.10.2024 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen 1-0 HT 1-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
26.05.2024 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 1-1 HT 1-0 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen ÇEK
22.05.2024 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen 1-2 HT 0-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEKK
10.03.2024 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen 4-0 HT 1-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
30.09.2023 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 2-1 HT 2-1 Viktoria Plzen Viktoria Plzen ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Prag
1-0
AWAY Viktoria Plzen
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Sparta Prag vs Viktoria Plzen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Prag edged past Viktoria Plzen 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Sparta Prag found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sparta Prag had 45% of the ball to Viktoria Plzen's 55%, shots finished 6-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Viktoria Plzen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sparta Prag and 2.00 for Viktoria Plzen.

What was the final score of Sparta Prag vs Viktoria Plzen?

Sparta Prag 1-0 Viktoria Plzen in the Czech Republic - Cup on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Prag vs Viktoria Plzen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sparta Prag win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sparta Prag 38%, draw 24%, Viktoria Plzen 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sparta Prag) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sparta Prag) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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