Inter 0-3 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 23 Apr 2025

Inter
0-3 HT 0-1
Milan
📅23/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2024/2025

Inter vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
25%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.56
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.26
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 29% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.03
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.2
X/1
19%
5.24
X/2
7%
7.12
X/X
12%
4.75
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
12%
4.89
2/X
8%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
44%
+4.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
25%
Away Win
29%
-4.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.7pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Inter v Milan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Inter EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.22/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.58
-10% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -97% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 83%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
19.5 Crosses 15.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Inter vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Inter
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Milan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.69 xG 1.54
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
425 Passes 355
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
29 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.04.2025 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 0-0 Inter Inter İTK
02.02.2025 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 1-0 Inter Inter İTA
06.01.2025 Inter Inter 2-3 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTSK
22.09.2024 Inter Inter 1-2 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
22.04.2024 Milan Milan 1-2 HT 0-1 Inter Inter İTA
16.09.2023 Inter Inter 5-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA

Inter 0-3 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Inter
0-3
AWAY Milan
1.29 xG 1.10
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
433 Passes 335
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 24
25 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Inter vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan ran out comfortable winners over Inter 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Inter at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Inter had 55% of the ball to Milan's 45%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.29 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Inter and 1.50 for Milan.

What was the final score of Inter vs Milan?

Inter 0-3 Milan in the Italy - Cup on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Inter vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Inter 48%, draw 27%, Milan 25%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Inter), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Inter) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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