Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 Trans Narva — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.04
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
49%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.67
Over 2.5
38%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
18%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
28%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
22%
-1.1pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
49%
Away Win
52%
-2.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.4pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 56%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +21%
1.36/2.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.96/0.57
+36% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +88%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Trans Narva
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
20.07.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-0 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
15.06.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-4 HT 0-2 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
04.05.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 0-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
27.09.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2 HT 1-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
08.07.2023 Trans Narva Trans Narva 0-4 HT 0-2 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
1-2
AWAY Trans Narva
69% Ball Possession 31%
9 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs Trans Narva
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trans Narva edged past Parnu JK Vaprus 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Trans Narva as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 69% of the ball to Trans Narva's 31%, shots finished 9-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parnu JK Vaprus had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 1.17 for Trans Narva.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs Trans Narva?

Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 Trans Narva in the Estonia - Premium League on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs Trans Narva?

Before kick-off our model rated an Trans Narva win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 20%, draw 30%, Trans Narva 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trans Narva), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Trans Narva) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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