Ferencvaros 3-1 MTK Budapest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - Cup, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
27%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.15
Over Pick
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
22%
3.98
2-3
46%
1.83
4-5
21%
2.93
6+
11%
8.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
66%
-18.2pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.9pp
27%
Away Win
14%
+13.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ferencvaros EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 17%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
2.98/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/2.20
+64% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -24%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
389 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ferencvaros
4W-1D-1L
AWAY MTK Budapest
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.43 xG 0.69
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
498 Passes 314
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
38 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.02.2025 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 0-0 HT 0-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
20.09.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-3 HT 1-2 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
28.04.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-2 HT 1-2 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
06.02.2024 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 5-1 HT 1-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
30.09.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-6 HT 1-2 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
07.05.2022 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 0-3 HT 0-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ferencvaros
3-1
AWAY MTK Budapest
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ferencvaros vs MTK Budapest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ferencvaros beat MTK Budapest 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ferencvaros as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Ferencvaros had 60% of the ball to MTK Budapest's 40%, shots finished 12-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ferencvaros had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Ferencvaros and 1.17 for MTK Budapest.

What was the final score of Ferencvaros vs MTK Budapest?

Ferencvaros 3-1 MTK Budapest in the Hungary - Cup on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ferencvaros vs MTK Budapest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ferencvaros win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Ferencvaros 48%, draw 25%, MTK Budapest 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ferencvaros), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ferencvaros) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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