Mladost Lucani 2-0 Backa Topola — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
42%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
22%
+10.5pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
42%
Away Win
54%
-12.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.9pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mladost Lucani EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 58%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.35/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.28
+62% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -8%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
232 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 78%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
18.9 Crosses 19.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mladost Lucani
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Backa Topola
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.43 xG 2.11
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
212 Passes 529
67% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 39
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.02.2025 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 4-1 HT 1-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
01.09.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-2 HT 1-2 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
17.05.2024 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 2-0 HT 1-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
12.03.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 4-1 HT 1-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
30.09.2023 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 1-1 HT 0-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
18.03.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 2-1 HT 2-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mladost Lucani
2-0
AWAY Backa Topola
1.87 xG 1.69
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 10
8 Corners 5
216 Passes 387
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 33
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mladost Lucani vs Backa Topola
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mladost Lucani beat Backa Topola 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Backa Topola at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mladost Lucani had 40% of the ball to Backa Topola's 60%, shots finished 13-24, expected goals 1.87 to 1.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mladost Lucani had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Mladost Lucani and 1.50 for Backa Topola.

What was the final score of Mladost Lucani vs Backa Topola?

Mladost Lucani 2-0 Backa Topola in the Serbia - Super League on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mladost Lucani vs Backa Topola?

Before kick-off our model rated an Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mladost Lucani 33%, draw 25%, Backa Topola 42%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
SIRP More Serbia - Super League
23 Apr 2025
17:00 Novi Pazar vs Vojvodina Analysis →
19:00 FK Partizan vs OFK Beograd Analysis →
20:00 Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac vs Kızılyıldız Analysis →