Lommel United 3-0 RFC Liege — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 23 Apr 2026

📅23/04/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
20%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.03
6+ Goals
12%
9.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.38
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
22%
4.55
X/2
5%
8.4
X/X
10%
5.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
21.8
2/2
7%
6.16
2/X
5%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.8 — our 12% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
51%
+4.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
20%
Away Win
24%
-3.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.0pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lommel United EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY RFC Liege EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
1.81/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.52
+31% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +34%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
379 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
18.0 Crosses 17.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lommel United
1W-1D-4L
AWAY RFC Liege
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.29 xG 1.11
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
522 Passes 250
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2026 RFC Liege RFC Liege 1-0 HT 0-0 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
28.09.2025 Lommel United Lommel United 0-1 HT 0-1 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
26.01.2025 Lommel United Lommel United 0-2 HT 0-2 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
04.10.2024 RFC Liege RFC Liege 1-1 HT 1-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
02.03.2024 Lommel United Lommel United 4-1 HT 1-0 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
01.10.2023 RFC Liege RFC Liege 2-1 HT 0-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lommel United
3-0
AWAY RFC Liege
1.08 xG 0.54
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 2
513 Passes 402
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 28
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lommel United vs RFC Liege
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lommel United swept aside RFC Liege 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lommel United as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lommel United had 55% of the ball to RFC Liege's 45%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 1.08 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RFC Liege led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lommel United and 1.33 for RFC Liege.

What was the final score of Lommel United vs RFC Liege?

Lommel United 3-0 RFC Liege in the Belgium - 1st Division on 23/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lommel United vs RFC Liege?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lommel United win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Lommel United 56%, draw 24%, RFC Liege 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lommel United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lommel United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BEL2 More Belgium - 1st Division
23 Apr 2026
21:30 Patro Eisden vs Beerschot VA Analysis →