Mazatlan 4-3 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 23 Apr 2026

Mazatlan
4 - 3 HT 0 - 1
Toluca
📅23/04/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Mazatlan vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
4.71
Draw
18%
4.19
Away Pick
67%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under
35%
2.51
Over
65%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.51
No
40%
2.39
Total Goals
0-1
15%
4.98
2-3
43%
1.92
4-5
31%
2.56
6+
11%
6.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
21%
X/X
10%
2/1
1%
2/2
42%
2/X
4%
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Mazatlan v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Mazatlan The Market 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca The Market 66%
Strong Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.25 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 2.17
1.99 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 0.65
Strong Attack Strength Average
Average Defense Strength Great
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
276 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 435 · 85%
17 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2

Mazatlan vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Toluca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.96 xG 1.82
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
321 Passes 470
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
10 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2025 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 1-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
25.01.2025 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
18.07.2024 Toluca Toluca 3-0 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
21.01.2024 Toluca Toluca 4-1 HT 1-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
11.11.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
12.03.2023 Toluca Toluca 4-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK

Mazatlan 4-3 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
4 - 3
AWAY Toluca
1.89 xG 1.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
269 Passes 395
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Mazatlan vs Toluca
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Mazatlan shaded a tight game against Toluca 4-3. From 0-1 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time. With 7 goals, entertainment was never the problem.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Toluca at 67% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (60%) landed.

On the day, Toluca saw more of the ball, 59% to 41%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.89 to 1.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 4 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.00 a game for Mazatlan against 2.50 for Toluca.

Mazatlan vs Toluca Result & Final Score

Mazatlan 4 - 3 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 23/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Mazatlan vs Toluca Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 15%, draw 18%, Toluca 67%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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