Toluca vs Mazatlan Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Mazatlan — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Mazatlan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Toluca
MEK
4-1
HT 2-1
Mazatlan
MEK
1-1
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
Toluca 3-1 Mazatlan — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca saw off Mazatlan 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (58%) came in.
On the day, Toluca had 52% of the ball to Mazatlan's 48%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.44 to 0.51.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Toluca and 1.00 for Mazatlan.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Mazatlan?
Toluca 3-1 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Mazatlan?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Toluca 70%, draw 16%, Mazatlan 14%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.