Toluca vs Mazatlan Prediction — Model Probabilities
Toluca v Mazatlan — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Mazatlan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Toluca 3-1 Mazatlan — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca saw off Mazatlan 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (73%), both teams to score (55%) landed.
On the day, possession split 52% to 48% in Toluca's favour, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.44 to 0.51.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.17 a game for Toluca against 1.00 for Mazatlan.
Toluca vs Mazatlan Result & Final Score
Toluca 3 - 1 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Toluca vs Mazatlan Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Toluca 79%, draw 12%, Mazatlan 9%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.