Puebla 0-2 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Sep 2025

Puebla
0-2 HT 0-2
Guadalajara
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Puebla vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.04
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+3.3pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.0pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.23/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.20
-7% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
288 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 81%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
18.1 Crosses 21.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Puebla vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.09 xG 1.42
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
296 Passes 400
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.04.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
26.10.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
07.04.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-2 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
21.10.2023 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
11.03.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.10.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK

Puebla 0-2 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
0-2
AWAY Guadalajara
70% Ball Possession 30%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
446 Passes 141
82% Pass Accuracy 61%
23 Box Touches 11
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara saw off Puebla 2-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Puebla had 70% of the ball to Guadalajara's 30%, shots finished 13-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Puebla and 1.17 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Guadalajara?

Puebla 0-2 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Puebla 33%, draw 23%, Guadalajara 44%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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