Club America 4-1 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.85
No
43%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.01
2-3 Goals
43%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
22%
3.49
6+ Goals
10%
14.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.49 — our 22% vs market 21.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
54%
+0.3pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
50%
+7.4pp
43%
BTTS No
50%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club America EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.54/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.61
+2% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 76%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
17.4 Crosses 15.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Club America
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.72 xG 0.69
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
429 Passes 267
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
23.02.2025 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-2 HT 0-1 Club America Club America MEK
30.09.2024 Club America Club America 0-1 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
21.04.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-1 HT 1-1 Club America Club America MEK
01.10.2023 Club America Club America 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
23.04.2023 Club America Club America 1-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
14.08.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-3 HT 0-1 Club America Club America MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club America
4-1
AWAY Pumas UNAM
2.79 xG 0.54
55% Ball Possession 45%
23 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
360 Passes 283
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 11
26 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Club America vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club America swept aside Pumas UNAM 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Club America as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Club America had 55% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 45%, shots finished 23-6, expected goals 2.79 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club America had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Club America and 0.67 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Club America vs Pumas UNAM?

Club America 4-1 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club America vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Club America win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Club America 54%, draw 23%, Pumas UNAM 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Club America), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Club America) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
28 Sep 2025
02:00 Puebla vs Guadalajara Analysis →
02:00 Atlas vs Necaxa Analysis →
02:00 Pachuca vs Atletico San Luis Analysis →
04:00 Toluca vs Mazatlan Analysis →
04:00 Monterrey vs Santos Laguna Analysis →