Monterrey 1-0 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.3
Draw
19%
5.15
Away
14%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.63
Over 2.5
55%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.79
2-3 Goals
36%
2.03
4-5 Goals
28%
2.44
6+ Goals
11%
5.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
31%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
3%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
72%
-5.5pp
19%
Draw
16%
+2.6pp
14%
Away Win
11%
+2.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
34%
+10.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
66%
-10.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.5pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.98/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.96
+7% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
408 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 80%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
20.4 Crosses 14.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Santos Laguna
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.65 xG 0.95
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
366 Passes 301
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2025 Monterrey Monterrey 4-2 HT 1-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
15.09.2024 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
22.01.2024 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
09.11.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 1-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
14.05.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 2-0 HT 1-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
11.05.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
1-0
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.10 xG 0.76
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
531 Passes 344
91% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey squeezed past Santos Laguna 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monterrey had 59% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 41%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.10 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Monterrey and 0.33 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Santos Laguna?

Monterrey 1-0 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 67%, draw 19%, Santos Laguna 14%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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