Sao Paulo 1-1 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.38
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 26% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.22
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
17%
4.28
X/2
6%
9.19
X/X
14%
5.06
2/1
9%
23.1
2/2
13%
7.22
2/X
5%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-2.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.50/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.39
-11% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 75%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
21.1 Crosses 15.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Botafogo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.28 xG 1.40
52% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
393 Passes 364
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
17.04.2025 Botafogo Botafogo 2-2 HT 1-2 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
08.12.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
26.09.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo LKU
19.09.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo LKU
25.07.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 1-2 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
1-1
AWAY Botafogo
1.63 xG 0.77
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
296 Passes 238
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo and Botafogo couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 54% of the ball to Botafogo's 46%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.63 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.17 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Botafogo?

Sao Paulo 1-1 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 51%, draw 25%, Botafogo 24%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Over 2.5
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