Paderborn 07 II 2-1 MSV Duisburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.75
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
56%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
18%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
23%
-1.4pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.6pp
56%
Away Win
53%
+3.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn 07 II EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 57%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
1.10/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
-13% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% /
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn 07 II
2-1
AWAY MSV Duisburg
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Paderborn 07 II vs MSV Duisburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn 07 II edged past MSV Duisburg 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

This one beat our numbers. MSV Duisburg carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Paderborn 07 II had 52% of the ball to MSV Duisburg's 48%, shots finished 16-15.

What was the final score of Paderborn 07 II vs MSV Duisburg?

Paderborn 07 II 2-1 MSV Duisburg in the Germany - Regional League on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn 07 II vs MSV Duisburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an MSV Duisburg win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 07 II 22%, draw 22%, MSV Duisburg 56%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (MSV Duisburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MSV Duisburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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