Newtown 0-4 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.21
Over 2.5
62%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.53
No
39%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.49
2-3 Goals
33%
1.9
4-5 Goals
30%
2.91
6+ Goals
17%
8.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.6pp
38%
Under 2.5
41%
-3.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
59%
+3.0pp
61%
BTTS Yes
61%
-0.2pp
39%
BTTS No
39%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newtown EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -2%
2.07/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.71
+34% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
323 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 421 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newtown
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
04.08.2024 Newtown Newtown 2-2 HT 0-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALLK
13.04.2024 Newtown Newtown 5-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
01.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
07.10.2023 Newtown Newtown 4-0 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
18.08.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
02.12.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-3 HT 1-2 Newtown Newtown GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newtown
0-4
AWAY Caernarfon Town
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newtown vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town swept aside Newtown 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Newtown at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, over 2.5 goals (62%) landed while both teams to score (61%) missed.

On the day, Newtown had 52% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 48%, shots finished 12-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newtown had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Newtown and 1.17 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Newtown vs Caernarfon Town?

Newtown 0-4 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newtown vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newtown win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Newtown 48%, draw 24%, Caernarfon Town 27%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Newtown), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newtown) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GAL More Wales - Premier League
23 Aug 2024
21:45 Briton Ferry vs Cardiff MU Analysis →
21:45 Haverfordwest County vs Penybont Analysis →
21:45 Bala Town vs Flint Town United Analysis →
22:00 Aberystwyth Town vs Barry Town Analysis →