Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.84
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.77
6+ Goals
9%
16.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.65
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.6
X/1
17%
4.42
X/2
15%
7.48
X/X
9%
4.46
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
7%
5.93
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
14.6
Value flag · 2/X at 14.6 — our 9% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.3pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
403 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
Crosses 16.8
Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.87 xG 1.29
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
268 Passes 355
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
01.06.2025 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-1 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
12.07.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JPK
10.08.2014 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-0
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
0.96 xG 0.36
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 4
240 Passes 240
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama nicked a narrow win over Shonan Bellmare 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fagiano Okayama as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 51% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 49%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 0.96 to 0.36.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Shonan Bellmare led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.00 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Shonan Bellmare?

Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 46%, draw 27%, Shonan Bellmare 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fagiano Okayama), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✓ Under 2.5
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