Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Vissel Kobe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
40%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.34
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.29
6+ Goals
10%
12.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.51
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
9%
12.55
X/1
16%
6.58
X/2
12%
5.22
X/X
10%
4.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
31.0
2/2
21%
3.14
2/X
6%
12.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 6% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+4.2pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.4pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-0.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.6pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Vissel Kobe EU Bookmakers 45%
+8% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -8%
1.17/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.05
+8% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 81%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
19.8 Crosses 20.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Vissel Kobe
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.11 xG 1.39
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
319 Passes 345
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.05.2025 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 1-3 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
13.09.2024 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 2-1 HT 2-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
11.05.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-4 HT 0-2 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
23.09.2023 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
10.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 0-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
06.08.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-0 HT 2-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-1
AWAY Vissel Kobe
2.28 xG 1.36
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
337 Passes 177
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
31 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Vissel Kobe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka and Vissel Kobe couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 61% of the ball to Vissel Kobe's 39%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 2.28 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.50 for Vissel Kobe.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Vissel Kobe?

Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Vissel Kobe in the Japan - J1 League on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Vissel Kobe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vissel Kobe win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 36%, draw 24%, Vissel Kobe 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vissel Kobe) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vissel Kobe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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