Vissel Kobe 1-3 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 May 2025

Vissel Kobe
1-3 HT 1-1
Cerezo Osaka
📅06/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2025

Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.14
6+ Goals
12%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 26% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.23
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.75
X/1
13%
4.43
X/2
12%
9.59
X/X
8%
5.41
2/1
6%
22.45
2/2
12%
7.32
2/X
7%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.3pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
29%
Away Win
21%
+7.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vissel Kobe v Cerezo Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vissel Kobe EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.63/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.51
+5% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
429 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
21.7 Crosses 16.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 0.9

Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vissel Kobe
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.41 xG 1.14
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
370 Passes 296
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.09.2024 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 2-1 HT 2-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
11.05.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-4 HT 0-2 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
23.09.2023 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
10.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 0-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
06.08.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-0 HT 2-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
10.04.2022 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP

Vissel Kobe 1-3 Cerezo Osaka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vissel Kobe
1-3
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.01 xG 0.95
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 1
427 Passes 432
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 9
27 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka beat Vissel Kobe 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Vissel Kobe at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Vissel Kobe had 51% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 49%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.01 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vissel Kobe and 1.33 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka?

Vissel Kobe 1-3 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 06/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vissel Kobe win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Vissel Kobe 47%, draw 24%, Cerezo Osaka 29%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vissel Kobe) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vissel Kobe) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
6 May 2025
00:00 Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama Analysis →
08:00 Avispa Fukuoka vs Kashima Antlers Analysis →
08:00 Urawa Red Diamonds vs Gamba Osaka Analysis →
10:00 Kashiwa Reysol vs Shimizu S-Pulse Analysis →
10:00 Tokyo Verdy vs Yokohama FC Analysis →