Albirex Niigata 1-2 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.93
2-3 Goals
43%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.66
6+ Goals
9%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 28% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.54
1/2
9%
25.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
11%
7.23
X/2
11%
4.59
X/X
17%
4.46
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.75
2/X
5%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+3.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
41%
Away Win
46%
-5.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.3pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 50%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.25/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.08
-15% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 77%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
15.5 Crosses 18.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Kashima Antlers
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.95 xG 1.35
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
595 Passes 265
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.02.2025 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-1 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
05.10.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-4 HT 0-3 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
16.06.2024 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-1 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
26.08.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-0 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
18.06.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-0 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
23.04.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-2 HT 0-2 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
1-2
AWAY Kashima Antlers
1.25 xG 1.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
298 Passes 291
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 31
27 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers squeezed past Albirex Niigata 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Kashima Antlers as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 51% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 49%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.25 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Albirex Niigata and 2.17 for Kashima Antlers.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Kashima Antlers?

Albirex Niigata 1-2 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 31%, draw 28%, Kashima Antlers 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashima Antlers), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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