Kashima Antlers 2-1 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 26 Feb 2025

📅26/02/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.54
Over 2.5
40%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.31
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
4.88
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.25
X/1
17%
4.62
X/2
12%
6.47
X/X
13%
3.84
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
11%
5.32
2/X
10%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.0pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.0pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.4pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.29/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.24
-8% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 76%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
19.6 Crosses 16.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashima Antlers
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.55 xG 0.88
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
262 Passes 620
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.10.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-4 HT 0-3 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
16.06.2024 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-1 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
26.08.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-0 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
18.06.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-0 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
23.04.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-2 HT 0-2 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
26.03.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashima Antlers
2-1
AWAY Albirex Niigata
0.56 xG 1.23
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
281 Passes 494
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kashima Antlers vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers edged past Albirex Niigata 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Kashima Antlers as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kashima Antlers had 39% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 61%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.56 to 1.23 — on chances, Albirex Niigata could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Kashima Antlers and 0.33 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Kashima Antlers vs Albirex Niigata?

Kashima Antlers 2-1 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashima Antlers vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Kashima Antlers 42%, draw 29%, Albirex Niigata 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashima Antlers) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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