Burnley 1-2 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 23 Sep 2025

📅23/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
1.86
Over Pick
56%
1.87
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.15
2-3
40%
1.75
4-5
25%
3.5
6+
11%
13.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.6
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
10%
4.47
X/2
15%
7.62
X/X
10%
4.83
2/1
12%
23.85
2/2
10%
5.86
2/X
7%
14.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.85 — our 12% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Burnley The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City The Market 29%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Average Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Average
1.66 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 2.44
1.38 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 2.96
Average Attackvs comparable teams Great
Weak Defensevs comparable teams Bad
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
311 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
Crosses 13.9
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Cardiff City
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.41 xG 0.99
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
366 Passes 293
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.03.2025 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-2 HT 1-2 Burnley Burnley İNCL
17.08.2024 Burnley Burnley 5-0 HT 2-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
08.05.2023 Burnley Burnley 3-0 HT 2-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
01.10.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-1 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNCL
13.04.2019 Burnley Burnley 2-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNP
30.09.2018 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-2 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
1-2
AWAY Cardiff City
1.18 xG 1.29
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
373 Passes 426
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Burnley vs Cardiff City
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Cardiff City shaded a tight game against Burnley 2-1 on their travels. Half-time: 0-2.

A gentle 46% lean on Burnley didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time. For what it's worth, the market was even more convinced — 1.89, about 53% — so the upset beat the price as well as us. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

The match data tells the story: Burnley had 47% of the ball to Cardiff City's 53%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.18 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Burnley and 0.50 for Cardiff City.

Burnley vs Cardiff City Result & Final Score

Burnley 1-2 Cardiff City in the England - League Cup on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Burnley vs Cardiff City Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Burnley 46%, draw 23%, Cardiff City 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Burnley) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Burnley) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNLK More England - League Cup
23 Sep 2025
21:45 Wolverhampton vs Everton Analysis →
21:45 Barnsley vs Brighton & Hove Albion Analysis →
21:45 Wigan Athletic vs Wycombe Wanderers Analysis →
21:45 Fulham vs Cambridge United Analysis →
21:45 Wrexham vs Reading Analysis →
21:45 Lincoln City vs Chelsea Analysis →