Montpellier 1-3 Boulogne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 23 Sep 2025

📅23/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.09
No
51%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.69
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 32% vs market 30.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.07
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.9
X/1
21%
3.9
X/2
7%
10.65
X/X
10%
4.65
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
6%
9.46
2/X
10%
18.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-6.1pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.0pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.9pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Boulogne EU Bookmakers 21%
-11% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -2%
1.02/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.04
-46% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +52%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
398 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.6 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Boulogne
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
16 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
06.02.2010 Boulogne Boulogne 0-2 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
26.09.2009 Montpellier Montpellier 1-0 HT 0-0 Boulogne Boulogne FR1
02.02.2009 Boulogne Boulogne 0-3 HT 0-3 Montpellier Montpellier FR2
15.08.2008 Montpellier Montpellier 0-0 HT 0-0 Boulogne Boulogne FR2
18.01.2008 Montpellier Montpellier 3-0 HT 0-0 Boulogne Boulogne FR2
10.08.2007 Boulogne Boulogne 2-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
1-3
AWAY Boulogne
1.02 xG 2.39
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 5
404 Passes 341
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 39
13 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Boulogne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boulogne beat Montpellier 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Montpellier at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Montpellier had 54% of the ball to Boulogne's 46%, shots finished 6-24, expected goals 1.02 to 2.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montpellier had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Montpellier and 0.33 for Boulogne.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Boulogne?

Montpellier 1-3 Boulogne in the France - Ligue 2 on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Boulogne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montpellier win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 52%, draw 28%, Boulogne 20%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Montpellier) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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