Guingamp 2-1 Dunkerque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 23 Sep 2025

Guingamp
2-1 HT 2-1
Dunkerque
📅23/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2025/2026

Guingamp vs Dunkerque Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.86
Over 2.5
43%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.21
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 33% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.45
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
11%
5.38
X/2
15%
6.03
X/X
14%
4.64
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
13%
4.11
2/X
9%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.6pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.4pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Guingamp v Dunkerque — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guingamp EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.29/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.22
+22% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
20.2 Crosses 17.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Guingamp vs Dunkerque Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guingamp
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dunkerque
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.88 xG 1.54
49% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
345 Passes 378
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.05.2025 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-0 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
07.04.2025 Dunkerque Dunkerque 3-1 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
04.01.2025 Guingamp Guingamp 1-1 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
13.04.2024 Dunkerque Dunkerque 0-1 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
12.08.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 0-1 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
07.05.2022 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-3 HT 0-3 Guingamp Guingamp FR2

Guingamp 2-1 Dunkerque — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guingamp
2-1
AWAY Dunkerque
2.35 xG 1.07
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
278 Passes 435
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
18 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Guingamp vs Dunkerque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guingamp squeezed past Dunkerque 2-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 33%) promised a tight game; Guingamp found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guingamp had 41% of the ball to Dunkerque's 59%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 2.35 to 1.07 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Guingamp's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dunkerque led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Guingamp and 1.17 for Dunkerque.

What was the final score of Guingamp vs Dunkerque?

Guingamp 2-1 Dunkerque in the France - Ligue 2 on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Guingamp 36%, draw 31%, Dunkerque 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guingamp) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guingamp) ✗ Under 2.5
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