Rostov 2-2 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
38%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.21
Over 2.5
44%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.56
No
55%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
4.42
2-3 Goals
37%
1.89
4-5 Goals
19%
2.93
6+ Goals
9%
8.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.42 — our 35% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+6.6pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.8pp
39%
Away Win
49%
-10.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
41%
+14.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
59%
-14.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
60%
-14.7pp
55%
BTTS No
40%
+14.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rostov EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 53%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.05/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.15/1.29
+0% / +116% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +125% / -30%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
262 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rostov
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.36 xG 1.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
353 Passes 232
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 HT 2-1 Rostov Rostov RUS
30.07.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
06.05.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
28.10.2023 Rostov Rostov 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
03.10.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1 HT 2-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
30.08.2023 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 2-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rostov
2-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rostov vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov and Lokomotiv Moscow couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rostov had 51% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 49%, shots finished 15-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rostov and 1.50 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Rostov vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Rostov 2-2 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Cup on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rostov vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Rostov 34%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv Moscow 39%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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