Queretaro 1-0 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 23 Oct 2025

Queretaro
1-0 HT 1-0
Guadalajara
📅23/10/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Queretaro vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
54%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 30% vs market 24.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
21%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
21%
-0.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
54%
Away Win
54%
-0.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Queretaro v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 58%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.00/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.12
-11% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / +5%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
261 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 84%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
18.4 Crosses 28.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Queretaro vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.06 xG 1.86
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
264 Passes 336
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.02.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
17.07.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 0-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
21.04.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
01.11.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
06.02.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
28.07.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 2-2 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK

Queretaro 1-0 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
1-0
AWAY Guadalajara
0.99 xG 1.92
26% Ball Possession 74%
6 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 11
163 Passes 561
69% Pass Accuracy 91%
6 Box Touches 52
3 Crosses 47
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro nicked a narrow win over Guadalajara 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Guadalajara at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Queretaro had 26% of the ball to Guadalajara's 74%, shots finished 6-22, expected goals 0.99 to 1.92 — the balance of chances actually favoured Guadalajara.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Queretaro and 1.67 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Guadalajara?

Queretaro 1-0 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 23/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 20%, draw 26%, Guadalajara 54%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Guadalajara) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5
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