Hamburg 2-2 Schalke 04 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 23 Nov 2024

Hamburg
2-2 HT 2-0
Schalke 04
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Hamburg vs Schalke 04 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.38
Over 2.5
48%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.98
4-5 Goals
23%
2.78
6+ Goals
11%
7.26
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.1 — our 27% vs market 15.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.21
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
21%
4.41
X/2
7%
9.46
X/X
14%
6.06
2/1
7%
20.75
2/2
12%
6.32
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.6pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.9pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+14.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-14.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.3pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hamburg v Schalke 04 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -20%
1.95/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.71
+3% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -27%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
390 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 71%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
22.0 Crosses 16.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Hamburg vs Schalke 04 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Schalke 04
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.26 xG 1.84
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
357 Passes 259
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.01.2024 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 0-2 HT 0-2 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
28.07.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 5-3 HT 1-2 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
18.12.2021 Hamburg Hamburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
23.07.2021 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 1-3 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
07.04.2018 Hamburg Hamburg 3-2 HT 1-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL1
19.11.2017 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 2-0 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1

Hamburg 2-2 Schalke 04 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
2-2
AWAY Schalke 04
2.41 xG 0.93
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
365 Passes 408
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
30 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Schalke 04
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg and Schalke 04 shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hamburg at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hamburg had 47% of the ball to Schalke 04's 53%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 2.41 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Hamburg and 1.50 for Schalke 04.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Schalke 04?

Hamburg 2-2 Schalke 04 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Schalke 04?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 47%, draw 29%, Schalke 04 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hamburg), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hamburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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