Aberdeen 1-0 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 23 Nov 2025

📅23/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
45%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.82
Over 2.5
42%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.16
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 25.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.57
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
11%
7.42
X/2
17%
4.77
X/X
12%
4.68
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
20%
2.81
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+1.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
45%
Away Win
47%
-1.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 50%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.67/2.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.23
+16% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -8%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
201 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 82%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
18.9 Crosses 22.0
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aberdeen
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hearts
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.96 xG 1.46
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
324 Passes 326
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2025 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
19.04.2025 Hearts Hearts 1-2 HT 1-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKK
12.01.2025 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
01.12.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
06.10.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-2 HT 1-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
27.01.2024 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 0-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aberdeen
1-0
AWAY Hearts
0.56 xG 2.30
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
222 Passes 379
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Aberdeen vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberdeen nicked a narrow win over Hearts 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Hearts at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Aberdeen had 40% of the ball to Hearts's 60%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.56 to 2.30 — the balance of chances actually favoured Hearts.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aberdeen and 1.33 for Hearts.

What was the final score of Aberdeen vs Hearts?

Aberdeen 1-0 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aberdeen vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Aberdeen 28%, draw 27%, Hearts 45%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hearts) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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