Salzburg 2-3 Swarovski Tirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 23 Nov 2025

📅23/11/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
71%
1.47
Draw
18%
4.19
Away
11%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
36%
2.1
Over
64%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
19%
3.96
2-3
37%
1.85
4-5
29%
3.05
6+
15%
9.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.81
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
5%
16.8
X/1
28%
4.0
X/2
4%
13.0
X/X
9%
6.36
2/1
8%
21.75
2/2
4%
10.7
2/X
5%
19.15
Value flag · X/1 at 4.0 — our 28% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Salzburg win — 71%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
64%
+7.0pp
18%
Draw
21%
-2.6pp
11%
Away Win
16%
-4.5pp
36%
Under 2.5
44%
-7.6pp
64%
Over 2.5
56%
+7.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 19%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -13%
2.10/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/2.00
+18% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -21%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
369 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 69%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
20.6 Crosses 15.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salzburg
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.21 xG 0.65
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
405 Passes 208
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.10.2025 Salzburg Salzburg 3-1 HT 0-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVK
28.09.2025 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-2 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
15.02.2025 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
30.10.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 3-0 HT 1-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVK
22.09.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-0 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
04.11.2023 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-2 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
2-3
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
2.26 xG 2.11
71% Ball Possession 29%
15 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
557 Passes 183
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
32 Box Touches 23
27 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs Swarovski Tirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swarovski Tirol nicked a narrow win over Salzburg 3-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Salzburg carried 71% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Salzburg had 71% of the ball to Swarovski Tirol's 29%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 2.26 to 2.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Salzburg and 0.50 for Swarovski Tirol.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs Swarovski Tirol?

Salzburg 2-3 Swarovski Tirol in the Austria - Bundesliga on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Swarovski Tirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 71%, draw 18%, Swarovski Tirol 11%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Salzburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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