Sturm Graz 1-3 LASK Linz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 23 Nov 2025

📅23/11/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
25%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.07
Over
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.85
2-3
39%
1.83
4-5
23%
3.11
6+
13%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.72
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
21%
4.9
X/2
10%
7.55
X/X
10%
5.25
2/1
10%
23.1
2/2
10%
5.3
2/X
8%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
47%
+3.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
25%
Away Win
27%
-1.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.9pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY LASK Linz EU Bookmakers 31%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -14%
1.42/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.79
-25% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
330 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 70%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
22.2 Crosses 16.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
4W-1D-1L
AWAY LASK Linz
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.83 xG 1.52
49% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
276 Passes 301
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.08.2025 LASK Linz LASK Linz 0-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
16.03.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-2 HT 1-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
27.10.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 1-2 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
12.05.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 2-2 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
07.04.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 1-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
05.11.2023 LASK Linz LASK Linz 3-1 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
1-3
AWAY LASK Linz
2.05 xG 1.78
72% Ball Possession 28%
22 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
540 Passes 168
85% Pass Accuracy 69%
41 Box Touches 21
34 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LASK Linz beat Sturm Graz 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sturm Graz at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 72% of the ball to LASK Linz's 28%, shots finished 22-12, expected goals 2.05 to 1.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.33 for LASK Linz.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

Sturm Graz 1-3 LASK Linz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 51%, draw 24%, LASK Linz 25%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sturm Graz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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