Sturm Graz 4-2 LASK Linz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.02
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.34 — our 24% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.34
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
17%
4.59
X/2
9%
8.6
X/X
10%
5.55
2/1
7%
21.15
2/2
14%
6.17
2/X
6%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY LASK Linz EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.73/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.55
-3% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
313 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 72%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
20.0 Crosses 15.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
4W-1D-1L
AWAY LASK Linz
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.18 xG 1.60
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
261 Passes 307
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 1-2 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
12.05.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 2-2 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
07.04.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 1-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
05.11.2023 LASK Linz LASK Linz 3-1 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
05.08.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
03.06.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 2-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
4-2
AWAY LASK Linz
3.71 xG 0.68
54% Ball Possession 46%
21 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
312 Passes 267
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
42 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz beat LASK Linz 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 54% of the ball to LASK Linz's 46%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 3.71 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.00 for LASK Linz.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

Sturm Graz 4-2 LASK Linz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 48%, draw 23%, LASK Linz 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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