Santa Fe 3-0 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 23 Nov 2025

📅23/11/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-0.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.9pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.5pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
1.08/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.98
-20% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +41%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
277 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 78%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
20.5 Crosses 15.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Fe
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
0.67 xG 0.83
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
212 Passes 313
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.08.2025 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-0 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
09.03.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
22.09.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 1-3 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
10.03.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Fe
3-0
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.88 xG 0.57
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
155 Passes 304
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Santa Fe vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Fe swept aside Fortaleza CEIF 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Santa Fe as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santa Fe had 36% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 64%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 1.88 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Santa Fe had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Santa Fe and 0.75 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Santa Fe vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Santa Fe 3-0 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Fe vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santa Fe win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Santa Fe 46%, draw 29%, Fortaleza CEIF 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Fe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santa Fe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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