Etoile Carouge 1-1 Wil 1900 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 24 Jan 2025

📅24/01/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.36
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.2
6+ Goals
9%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 26% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-6.5pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.8pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Etoile Carouge EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Wil 1900 EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
2.31/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.16
+15% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
15.9 Crosses 14.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Etoile Carouge
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Wil 1900
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.53 xG 0.97
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
456 Passes 324
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 11
12 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
30.11.2024 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 2-1 HT 1-1 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV2
30.08.2024 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 3-1 HT 1-0 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Etoile Carouge
1-1
AWAY Wil 1900
1.14 xG 0.90
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
357 Passes 418
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Etoile Carouge vs Wil 1900
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Etoile Carouge and Wil 1900 couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Etoile Carouge at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Etoile Carouge had 46% of the ball to Wil 1900's 54%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.14 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Etoile Carouge and 1.50 for Wil 1900.

What was the final score of Etoile Carouge vs Wil 1900?

Etoile Carouge 1-1 Wil 1900 in the Switzerland Challenge League on 24/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Etoile Carouge vs Wil 1900?

Before kick-off our model rated a Etoile Carouge win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Etoile Carouge 43%, draw 27%, Wil 1900 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Etoile Carouge), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Etoile Carouge) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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