Cardiff MU 2-1 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 24 Jan 2025

📅24/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.5
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.75
Over 2.5
51%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.85
No
43%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2.83
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.7
6+ Goals
13%
16.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 25% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
25%
-0.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
46%
Away Win
49%
-3.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
50%
+7.5pp
42%
BTTS No
50%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 54%
+3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +10%
1.13/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.72
+8% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +54%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
224 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Penybont
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
31.12.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-2 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
18.10.2024 Penybont Penybont 0-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GALWK
15.10.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 1-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
26.12.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-3 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
29.08.2023 Penybont Penybont 0-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
31.03.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-3 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff MU
2-1
AWAY Penybont
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff MU squeezed past Penybont 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Penybont at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cardiff MU had 52% of the ball to Penybont's 48%, shots finished 10-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cardiff MU and 1.50 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Penybont?

Cardiff MU 2-1 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 24/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 24%, draw 29%, Penybont 46%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Penybont) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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