Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alianza Petrolera v Atletico Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Alianza Petrolera
KOL
0-0
HT 0-0
Atletico Nacional
KOL
Alianza Petrolera 3-2 Atletico Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Alianza Petrolera nicked a narrow win over Atletico Nacional 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (31% / 30% / 39%) promised a tight game; Alianza Petrolera found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 33% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 67%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.27 to 0.75.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 1.67 for Atletico Nacional.
What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Nacional?
Alianza Petrolera 3-2 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 24/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 31%, draw 30%, Atletico Nacional 39%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.